may be true that 2012 is a ridiculous way of thinking about the end of time, and natural disasters that we face are physiological, however, is to be afraid of looking at the social situation of our planet.
During the Cold War we were always on the brink of nuclear war and the arms race with governments holding its breath. But in the last two years our world has been upset by unrest of any kind: economic, social, geological undermining the fundamental security of our society.
We are moving towards self-destruction of the masses?
Open today's newspapers it was like going back in time when Europe was looking for political stability. There were new clashes in Egypt and other deaths in the day the government resigned. After Cairo to Alexandria even the protesters in the square. The Arab satellite TV al-Jazeera says its correspondent saw the bodies of today more than 20 demonstrators in Alexandria, while hospital sources reported that 30 bodies, including those of two children aged 4 and 7 years, were taken to hospital yesterday Damardash El Cairo following the unrest yesterday. All the while chasing the rumors died last Tuesday, first day of the protest today: according to Al Jazeera about 100, including 5 in the final hours. According to news sources, many of the victims would more.
And these riots just ahead of those in Tunisia, Albania and even Jordan. A ghost hovering in the Arab regimes "moderate" following the escape of Ben Ali. The idea that change is possible is not only timidly caressed, but became more concrete and real.
enthusiasm due to the perception that something incredible had happened was palpable on the streets of Amman during the week that was blown away by the despot of the North African state.
The Arab masses are perhaps not destined for a sleep that makes them unable to mobilize and react: this awareness is a change even psychologically considered revolutionary for a region foreign to every wave of democratization, seemingly doomed to live under a perpetual authoritarianism.
If we leave and move within the social context of natural disasters, the situation is not encouraging. Natural disasters have been particularly devastating in 2010, causing 295,000 deaths and 130 billion dollars in damages, a figure well above the average of the last 30 years: this is the estimate of German reinsurer Munich Re The worst catastrophes in terms of victims are was the earthquake of January in Haiti (222,570 deaths), and the heat wave of summer fires in Russia (56,000 deaths) and the earthquake April in China (2,700 deaths). The events were the most costly earthquake in Chile in February (30 billion dollars in damage and 520 deaths) and the earthquake of September in New Zealand (provisional cost of $ 3.7 billion). In most developed countries, Western Europe has been hit by the storm Xynthia February (65 deaths, 6.1 billion dollars in damage) and the United States by some tornado for a total of $ 4.7 billion. Overall, the world leader in reinsurance has counted 950 natural disasters in 2010, a figure well above the average of the last 30 years (615 disasters annually). Disasters have also caused many more deaths from 1980 to 295,000 deaths against an average of 66,000 - And damage costs much higher: $ 130 billion compared to an average of 95 billion. So you can ffermare
to the current trend of natural disasters is increasing worldwide due to the combined effect of three major "risk factors": urban sprawl, environmental degradation and climate change in particular a result of emissions of greenhouse gases. These challenges threaten development, economic stability and global security, but above all climate change to exacerbate the interaction between disaster risk and poverty.
rise of weather and extreme weather phenomena - occurring sottoforma di gravi e frequenti calamità naturali, comprese le siccità e le tempeste – corrisponde la vulnerabilità delle comunità svantaggiate nei paesi in via di sviluppo nell’assorbire l’impatto e nel riuscire a recuperare, oltretutto senza copertura assicurativa né protezione sociale. Negli ultimi 32 anni, in Medio Oriente e nel Nord Africa, 37 milioni di persone hanno subito un danno superiore ai $ 19bn in seguito alla siccità in Sudan e in Somalia, le inondazioni in Sudan e in Marocco, i terremoti in Egitto e in Algeria, il ciclone nell’Oman e negli Emirati Arabi Uniti. L’uragano Katrina negli Stati Uniti nel 2005 è stato invece il più costoso in termini di perdite finanziarie ($ 125 miliardi).
therefore arrive at the crucial point: how long a civilization in our universe?
average, a mammal on Earth, as a species, is five or ten million years, a man with his technological civilization will last more or less? Asimov says less: only a million years. If you apply a similar criterion for the other planets, making a bit 'of accounts you have only one chance in a thousand (0.1%) that another technological civilization is our contemporary. This is the optimistic assumptions.
The pessimist might say that the moderate duration of a technological civilization is much less than a million years: only 20,000 years. However, as a type of our solar system (and therefore a planet like the Earth) is only half way of his life (and therefore still has a few billion years old), could re-emerge later on the same planet, several times , other civilizations. Let's say 10 more times, for a total of 200,000 years. Then 0.02%. The pessimist, however, might say that a technological civilization lasts only two thousand years, then self-destructs and does not reappear again.
We have exceeded this threshold, but as yet dureremo?
Source: www.ufoonline.it
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